Comparing all of 2011 with 2010, there are mixed signals in the mls numbers. The good news is that closed home sales are up 4% over 2010 and pending sales are up 6%. However the 2011 median sales price for a Portland home is down 7.9% from the previous year. And the number of new listings is down 25.4%.

Theses conditions could push Portland real estate prices higher in the coming months.

Here’s why. The small amount of new listings coupled with a small increase in sales means less homes  for sale to choose from. (We call it inventory.)  December 2011 had 5.3 months of inventory (See the chart below from Portland’s mls.)  Four to six months inventory is generally accepted as a “neutral” market favoring neither buyers nor sellers. Less than 4 months is a seller’s market. All through 2011 the number of months of inventory has been trending down. (Again, see the mls chart below.) We started 2011 with 11.3 months of inventory.

We are expecting more foreclosed Portland homes to enter the real estate market in the coming months. Read more about Portland foreclosure trends here.  If so, buyers will have more homes to choose from. But sellers will continue to have low priced competition.

Are you looking for Portland homes for sale? You can search the entire Portland MLS from this web site. Customize your search according to your house criteria, schools and lifestyle needs. Give it a try.

Thinking of selling your home in Portland? For December the average market time was 142 days.

(This report is a snapshot in time. To compare December with previous months, see my other reports on Portland Real Estate Market Conditions.)

Portland Real Estate Market: Home Sales

December 2011 closed home sales are up 10.3% over the previous December 2010.  Pending sales are also up 19.3%. In comparing December 2011 with the previous month (November 2011) closed home sales are up 6.0% and pending sales are down 14.4%

Portland Real Estate Market: Home Prices

The median sold price for Portland real estate is up 0.5%  over the previous month. We closed out the year with a December median sold price of $216,600. That’s just a bit higher than January 2011’s median price of $215,000.

Is it a Buyers or Sellers Market for Portland Homes for Sale?

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart to the right.

For Portland homes for sale, it’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market;  4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market.

All information is courtesy of RMLS.

There were more closed home sales in Portland in November than there were in October or in the previous November. Sold home prices are also up. A home purchased in January, 2011 would cost about $10,000 more in November.

Do you want to buy a home in Portland? Can you believe these interest rates? Fixed rate FHA loans and conventional loans are still under 4%. Now if buyers just had a few more homes to choose from…

(Looking for Portland homes for sale? You can search the entire Portland MLS from this web site. Customize your search according to your house criteria, schools and lifestyle needs. Give it a try.)

Thinking of selling your home in Portland? For November the average market time was 135 days.

(This report is a snapshot in time. To compare October with previous months, see my other reports on Portland Real Estate Market Conditions.)

Portland Real Estate Market: Home Sales

For November 2011 closed home sales are up 18.9% over the previous November 2010.  Pending sales are also up 18.2% over November 2010.

In comparing November 2011 with the previous month (October 2011) closed home sales are up 3.2% and pending sales are down 10.3%

Portland Real Estate Market: Home Prices

The median sold price for Portland homes for sale is up 3.3%  over the previous month. For November 2011 the median sales price is $10.000 higher than the median sold price for January 2011.

Is it a Buyers or Sellers Market for Portland Homes for Sale?

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart to the right.

For Portland homes for sale, it’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market;  4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market.

All information is courtesy of RMLS.

Portland home sales this year are shaping up to be an improvement over 2010. According to the latest stats from RMLS, closed sales are up again compared with last year. For October 2011 closed sales are up 14.1% compared with October 2010. Pending sales are also up 15.1% compared with last year.

Thinking of buying a home in Portland? Last week the 30 year fixed rate for an FHA loan was  still 3.75%. Amazing!  Who knows how long these low rates will last.

Thinking of selling your home in Portland? For October the average market time was 136 days.

(This report is a snapshot in time. To compare October with previous months, see my other Market Conditions Reports.)

Portland Real Estate Market: Home Sales

Closed sales for October 2011 up 14.1% over the previous October 2010.  Pending sales also up 15.1% over October 2010.

Comparing October 2011 with the previous month (September 2011) closed sales are down 7.1% and pending sales are down slightly 0.9%

Portland Real Estate Market: Home Prices

The median sold price for Portland real estate is down  5.6%  over the previous month. For October 2011 the median sales price is $2,800 higher than the median sold price for January 2011.

BUYERS MARKET? OR SELLERS MARKET?

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart to the right.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market;  4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market.

All information is courtesy of RMLS.

Closed sales and pending sales are up over last year this time. Comparing closed sales for the third quarter of 2010 with the third quarter of 2011 closed sales were up a whopping 21.5%. (Pending sales increased 21.6% and new listings were down 27.6% over third quarter last year.)

Thinking of buying a home in Portland? Last week the 30 year fixed rate for an FHA loan was 3.75%. Amazing!  Who knows how long these low rates will last. (This report is a snapshot in time. To compare September with previous months, see my other Market Conditions Reports.)

Portland Real Estate: Sales

Closed sales for Sept 2011 up 13.4% over the previous Sept 2010.  Pending sales also up 17.5% over Sept 2010.

Comparing September 2011 with the previous month (August 2011) closed sales are down 12.1% and pending sales are down 14.9% (The pending sales figure is slightly skewed for August 2011 by a change in the way RMLS reports pending short sales.)

Portland Real Estate: Prices

 The median sold price for Portland real estate is up just a small amount (2.6%)  over the previous month. For September 2011 the median sales price is $15,800 higher than the median sold price for January 2011.

BUYERS MARKET? OR SELLERS MARKET?

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart to the right.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market;  4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market.

All information is courtesy of RMLS.

judging by the August 2011 numbers from our local MLS. Closed sales are up dramatically (30.7%  over the previous August) and pending sales are also up. Portland home buyers must really be taking advantage of the extremely low interest rates. Last week the 30 year fixed rate for an FHA loan was 3.8%. Amazing!

(This report is a snapshot in time. To compare August with previous months, see my other Market Conditions Reports.)

Portland Real Estate Market: Sales

Closed and pending sales are up for August 2011. Compared with the previous August (2010), closed home sales in the Portland metro area are up 30.7% and pending sales have increased 29.6%

Compared with the previous month (July 2011) closed sales are up 5.6% and pending sales are up 13.4%/ (The pending sales figure  is slightly skewed for August 2011 because of a change in the way RMLS reports pending short sales.)

Portland Real Estate Market: Prices

Sold prices for Portland real estate are down just a small amount over the previous month. That’s the first time in 2011 that the month to month sold price change has decreased.  Even so, the median sold price for August 2011 is $10,000 higher than the median sold price for January 2011.

BUYERS MARKET? OR SELLERS MARKET?

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart to the right.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market;  4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market.

All information is courtesy of RMLS.

To compare July 2011 figures with June 2011 check my previous blog.

A snapshot of the Portland real estate market for Buyers and Sellers:  Remember July? That’s the month the entire country (the entire world?) held its breath waiting for the US Congress to raise the nation’s debt limit.  Uncertainty abounded.  Hardly a time to make the biggest purchase of one’s life. And yet July 2011 saw more closed home sales and more accepted offers (pending sales) than the previous July. Inventory levels of homes to choose from are also down. Home prices in Portland continue to rise. Read on for more details.

Comparing July 2011 Portland real estate numbers with July 2010:  Close home sales were up 21% over the previous July. Pending sales were also up 18.4%. There are 27% less homes available to buy in Portland than there were in July 2010.

The average market time for a home for sale in Portland is 132 days. It was 121 days this time last year.

July 2011 compared with June 2011 Portland home sales:  June had more closed sales and pending sales. In July the closed sales went down 12.7% and pending sales also went down 3.7%. New listings decreased by 6.4% compared with June. Maybe we can blame it on Congress?

At the current rate of sales the Portland real estate market has 7.0  months of inventory. (In June there were 6.0 months of inventory. See the chart and explanation below for more details.)

Sales Prices  are still lower than the previous July. The average sales price for July 2011 was 7.4% lower than July 2010 and the median price is down 7.6%. But here’s the interesting thing, prices continue their gentle rise since the beginning of the year. The average sales price for July 2011 is 3% higher than June 2011. The median sales price is 1.9% higher than June. This is the seventh straight month of price increase. (See the Portland Metro Residential Highlights chart below for more details.)

In January 2011, the median sold price for Portland homes was$215,000. In July it is $227,200.  That’s a $12,200 increase in median home prices for the year so far.

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market;  4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.

To compare June 2011 figures with May 2011 check my previous market conditions blog.

A snapshot of the Portland real estate market for Buyers and Sellers: Portland home prices continue their  gradual rise. Since January 2011 the median sold price for Portland homes has increased $7,900. (See the chart below.) As prices start to rise and interest rates remain at near historic lows, the number of homes available to buy has shrunk. There are getting to be fewer homes to choose from, and they are costing a little more each month. If you are waiting to see the bottom of the market, you may have to look in the rear view mirror. There are still lots of great homes to buy. Call me. I’ll help you set up an on-line search for homes for sale.

Comparing June 2011 Portland real estate numbers with June 2010: Closed home sales were down a little bit (2.7%) this June over last June. However pending sales were up a huge 23.7% over the previous June. Pending sales are homes where an offer has been accepted but the sale has not yet closed. June’s pending sales are July’s closed sales in many cases. New listings of homes for sale in Portland dropped 22.4% compared with June 2010.

The average market time for a home for sale in Portland is 134 days. It was 121 days this time last year.

June 2011 compared with May 2011 Portland home sales: Closed home sales are up 12.4% over last month while pending sales are down -7.7%. New listings are also down 5.8% from last month.

At the current rate of sales the Portland real estate market has 6.0 months of inventory. (In May there were 6.8 months of inventory. See the chart and explanation below for more details.)

Sales Prices: Compared with the previous June, the average sales price is down 7.8% and the median price is down 7.1%. However, we continue our 2011 trend of gently increasing the median sales price each month. The median sales price for Portland real estate is up for June 2011 by 1.3% over May 2011. (See the Portland Metro Residential Highlights chart below for more details.)

I’ve graphed the median sales price for Portland real estate for the past 13 months. You can see our slow but steady rise in prices. Does 6 months price increase make a trend?

For June the average price for buying a home in Portland is $267,100 and the median price is $222,900.

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market;  4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.

It’s a slow but steady upward trend in the Portland real estate market. The median sold home price has shown a small but consistent upward trend every month of 2011. January 2011’s median  price was $215,000. In May the median  price  is $220,000.  Portland home buyers: It’s time. Let’s go look at homes!

To compare May 2011 figures with April 2011 check my previous market conditions blog.

A snapshot of the Portland real estate market for Buyers: In general, May figures (as reported by the RMLS) are improved over April’s numbers. There are more closed sales than in April, more pending sales, and the number of new listings increased 7.7% That means more homes for you to choose from. Interest rates are still well below 5% for most borrowers.  It’s a great time to buy a home in Portland.

Comparing May 2011 Portland real estate numbers with May 2010: The number of closed homes are down for May 2011 by 15%. But pending sales are up a huge 45.1% over the previous May. New listings are 4.1% less than the previous May.

May 2011 compared with April 2011 Portland home sales: Closed homes are up 8.1%, pending sales are up also 8.1% and there are 7.7% more new listings.

At the current rate of sales the Portland real estate market has 6.8 months of inventory. (In April there were 7.2 months of inventory. This is the lowest number of months of inventory since October 2009 when there were 6.5 months of available homes for sale. See the chart and explanation below for more details.)

Home Prices Comparing May 2011 with May 2010, the average sold home price is down 4.8% and the median home price is down 7.9%. In a month to month comparison of April and May 2011, the average sales price is down just a tiny bit (-1.8%) while the median sales price increased just a tiny bit (0.1%)  (See the Portland Metro Residential Highlights chart below for more details.

For May 2011 the average home price is $262,400 and the median home price is $220,000.

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market; 4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.

To compare April 2011 figures with March 2011, check my previous blog.

A snapshot of the Portland real estate market for Buyers: If you are thinking of buying a home in Portland, now is a good time to act.  The number of homes to choose from is shrinking and prices are starting to rise. They are currently at 2004 home price levels. With interest rates still under 5% for many borrowers, there are many good opportunities to buy a home in Portland.

Comparing April 2011 Portland real estate numbers with April 2010: closed sales decreased 17%, pending sales were 33% less and new listings also are less by 34.2%.

April 2011 compared with March 2011 Portland home sales: again closed sales are down, but only by 0.3%. Pending home sales are also slightly down –by 0.5%. But new listings are slightly up over last month by 1.4%.  On the whole, April looks pretty much like March.

At the current rate of sales the homes for sale in the Portland real estate market would last about 7.2 months. (In March  there were 7.1 months of inventory. See the chart and explanation below for more details.)

Portland Home Sale Prices: Home prices are now at 2004 to 2005 price  levels.

The average sales price for a home in Portland dropped 5.2% compared to April 2010 and the median price went down 8.4% to $219,900. (See the Portland Metro Residential Highlights chart below for more details.)

However, the average sales price for April 2011 increased 2.4% over March 2011 average; and the median sales price increased 2.3%.  In fact the median sold price has slowly but steadily increased every month this year. I’ve graphed the median sold prices for the past 12 months. Here it is:

Median sold price for Portland homes May 2010 through April 2011

Here’s more information from RMLS.

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market; 4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.

To compare March 2011 with February 2011, check my previous market conditions blog.

A snapshot of the Portland real estate market for buyers: The median price for a home in Portland is $215,000. Prices in the Portland real estate market may be starting to bottom out. Here’s what’s happening. First there is a significant drop in number of homes for sale in Portland. More buyers are closing on their new homes and less sellers are putting there homes on the market in these uncertain times. That means less “inventory” or homes for sale in Portland. When there is less for sale, demand pushes prices up. And we’re starting to see a very small increase in prices. The figures for March 2011 are just a small piece of information. Is it a trend or a fluke? Stay tuned.

Comparing March 2011 with March 2010: We had 10.2% less closed sales than last March. Pending sales are also 16.2% less, and new listings are way below March 2010. They are down 38.7%

March 2011 compared with February 2011: Closed sales are up 50.4%. Pending sales are up 26.5%. And new listings are even on the increase—up 6% over last month.

At the current rate of sales the homes for sale in Portland and the metro area would last for 7.1 months if no new homes came on the market. See the chart below for more information about what this means.

Sales Price: are up. I haven’t written that in a while! Compared with February 2011, the average sales price for Portland real estate is up 6.8% and the median price is also up slightly (0.6%). Compared with March a year ago the average sales price is down 6.8% and the median is down 10%.

With the first quarter of 2011 competed, the average sold price of a home for sale in Portland dropped 9.2 % compared with the first quarter of 2010.

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market; 4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.

To compare February 2011’s numbers with January 2011, check my previous market conditions blog.

A snapshot of the Portland real estate market for buyers: While the number of Portland homes for sale to choose from is going down (through homes being sold and less homes coming on the market to replace the inventory), prices appear to be stabilizing. The median sale price is now $213,700. The last time the median price was nearly this low was in 2004. Current interest rates hover around 5% and below depending on your credit score.

Comparing February 2011 with February 2010: Closed sales were up 5.8%, but pending sales and new listings are both down (13.9% and 26.1% respectively).

February 2011 compared with January 2011: The Portland real estate market increased in closed sales by 3.8%. Also, pending sales were up 6.9%. Again, new listings of homes for sale in Portland dropped 7.8% compared with January.

At the current rate of sales, if no new homes for sale in Portland came on the market it would take 10.9 months to use all the inventory for sale. (See the chart below.) These 10.9 months of inventory for February 2011 is considerably lower than the 12.9 months for February 2010 and the 16.6 months of inventory for February 2009. The Portland real estate market is definitely moving in the right direction!

Sales Prices: are lower than February 2010. The average sales price is 10.5% less and the median sales price is down 9.1%. Compared with the previous month of January 2011, the average sales price is down just slightly, 1.8% and the median price is down 0.6%.

See the Portland Metro Residential Highlights chart below for more details.

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market;  4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.

That’s what most people say when I ask the question. (I frequently write about the Portland real estate market. Check out my other blogs here.)

There has been so much bad news in the media about falling values. Everyone thinks we’ve lost the entire decade’s worth of home appreciation. Buyers think they should be able to purchase a Portland home for the same price as in 2000.  Sellers who bought their home in 2001 or 2002 think they would have to sell at a loss today. It’s just a case of too much negative news about the housing market. And the misconceptions make it hard for buyers and sellers to come to agreement on price.

If you think we’re down to median sold home prices for the year 2000, you’re wrong.

2002? Wrong. 2003? 2004? Wrong again.

The 2010 median sales price for Portland real estate was $239,900.That’s just a bit above the median sold price for 2005 of $237,500.  There were such huge gains in Portland real estate value in 2006 and 2007 —in 2006 the median price jumped to $270,500.  Even the bleak years of 2008-2010 did not wipe out all the value gains of the decade.

See the chart below from the RMLS to get the full picture.

Confused about what “median” means? Check the definition below the Summary Table chart.

What does median sold price mean? It means of all the homes sold in Portland during 2010, half sold for less than $239,900 and half for more. It’s a better gauge of price than the average home price, which gets skewed when a multi-million dollar home is sold. (Yes a few of them have sold.)

But the median or the average home price are both meaningless numbers without a perspective to the past. So be sure to take a look at this chart from RMLS.

To compare January 2011 figures with December 2010 check my previous blog.

Comparing January 2011 Portland real estate numbers with January 2010: closed sales increased 5%, pending sales decreased 3% and new listings are really down—20.5%. The average sales price for Portland real estate dropped 11.9%

January 2011 compared with December 2010 Portland home sales: closed sales dropped 29.2%, but pending home sales increased 23.1%. This bodes well for February closed sales. New listings also increased a huge 62.5%.

At the current rate of sales the Portland real estate market has 11.3 months of inventory. (In December there were 7.9 months of inventory. See the chart and explanation below for more details.)

The inventory in months chart doesn’t go back far enough to see the real trend of decreasing inventory of Portland homes for sale. January 2011’s 11.3 months of inventory is the lowest January inventory figure since January 2007 (the beginning of the real estate demise) when there was 6.2 months of inventory.

Sales Prices are still declining. This is the bad news for sellers. For buyers, let’s get together and take advantage of the low prices and low interest rates.

The average sales price for January 2011 compared with January 2010 declined 11.9% and the median price of Portland real estate declined 10.4%. Compared with December 2010, Portland home prices also declined by 10.5% for the average and 6.5% for the median sales price. (See the Portland Metro Residential Highlights chart below for more details.)

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market; 4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.

To compare December with the previous month, check my previous market conditions blog.

Comparing December 2010 with December 2009: there were 2.9% less closed sales. However pending sales increased 6% and new listings were down by 8.5%. (Remember, December’s pending sales are generally January’s closed sales. So expect brighter news next month.)

December 2010 compared with November 2010: There were big increases in closed sales over November—14.3%. But pending sales dropped 15.2% and new listings were down a whopping 22.2%. But then, December always has that effect on the real estate market. Sellers don’t generally put their house up for sale just before Christmas. They prefer to wait until after the holidays.

At the current rate of sales the Portland real estate market has 7.9 months of inventory. (In November there were 10.2 months of inventory. See the chart and explanation below for more details.)

Sales Prices: For December 2010 the average sales price for a home in Portland went down 5.2% compared with December 2009. The median home price was down 5%. But looking at December 2010 compared with November 2010, the average sales price went up 2.2%. (See the Portland Metro Residential Highlights chart below for more details.)

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market;  4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.

The November figures continue a downward trend but only by 1% compared to the previous month. Does this mean the downward slide is slowing??

To compare November with the previous month check my previous market conditions blog.

Comparing November 2010 with November 2009, let’s remember that first time home buyers didn’t know the tax credit deadline of November 30, 2009 would be extended into 2010. Because of this many buyers who normally would have bought in a later month timed their purchases to close in November. This inflated Nov. 2009 figures.

Now back to the November 2010/November 20o9 comparison. Closed sales were down 28.7%. (See the paragraph above.) Pending sales were up 7.4% and new listings fell about 1%.

November 2010 compared with October 2010: all the numbers were down. Closed sales fell 1%, pending sales were down 12.6% and new listings were down a whopping 20.7%. These are raw figures, not seasonally adjusted ones. New listings always decrease around the holidays as new sellers prefer to wait for the beginning of the new year to market their homes.

At the current rate of sales, the Portland real estate market has 10.2 months of inventory. See the chart and explanation below.

Interest rates for buying a home in Portland have gone up a little but are still below 5% for the majority of buyers. Economists expect mortgage rates to slowly increase during 2011. Better lock in your 30 year rate before your buying power erodes.

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market;  4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.

To compare with last month, check my previous market conditions blog.

Comparing October 2010 with October 2009, closed sales are down 35.7%, pending sales are down 21.5% and new listings are also down by 9.4%. These numbers seem terrible. But think about what was happening last October. The First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit was set to expire after November 30, 2009.  Many, many buyers already had their new homes in escrow to take advantage of the credit. The tax credit artificially inflated October 2009 real estate sales figures. So of course the Oct. 2010 statistics look terrible compared with last year.

Looking at October 2010 compared with September 2010, shows a much smaller decline (and a decline we would expect in any real estate market as we approach the holidays). Closed sales are down 7.7%. Pending sales are up 3% over September. And new listings are down12.1%.  Even in normal real estate markets many would be sellers prefer to list their homes after the holidays rather than start a listing in October or November. Let’s see if the stats for the beginning of 2011 bears this out.

At the current rate of sales the Portland real estate market has 10.7 months of inventory. See the chart and explanation below.

If you’re ready to buy and plan to be in your new home for a couple of years, there are great opportunities for buying a home in Portland. Interest rates remain around 4.25% for 30 year fixed loans. Don’t miss out on these great rates. As interest goes up, your buying power erodes. This would make a great blog topic. I’ll work on it.

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market;  4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.

To compare with last month check my previous market conditions blog.

Looking at September 2010 compared with September 2009, closed sales are down by 22.3%, pending sales decreased 30.7%. New listings are down 1.4%. The average sales price is down 3.5% and median sold price is down just a hair—0.6%

Comparing September 2010 with August 2010, closed sales are higher by 1.3%, but pending sales are down 6.2% and new listings decreased 7.3%. The average sales price compared with August is down 6.4% and the median sales price is down 4%

At the current rate of sale activity, the existing inventory would last 10.5 months. See the chart below.

I’m late getting these figures into my blog and October numbers should be out in the next few days. I’m hoping to see improving numbers. But I won’t be surprised if the market stays in the doldrums until the beginning of next year. It’s dark. It’s rainy. And the Portland real estate market frequently slackens off for the holidays.

I do think we have pent up demand that will bring the market (slowly) back once it is unleashed.

People still dream of owning their first home. Others want to move up to a bigger home or downsize to something more manageable. Prices are low, interest rates haven’t been this low since the 1950’s. Once buyers feel the prices are somewhat stabilized, demand will grow again. I do believe it.

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market; 4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.

To compare these figures with last month, check my previous market conditions blog.

August home sales for the Portland metro area look glum when compared with August 2009 sales figures. Closed sales are down 25% and pending home sales are down 21.7%. New listings went up only 1.3% compared with August 2009. So buyers don’t have much in the way of new inventory to choose from.

Looking at August 2010 statistics compared with the previous month closed sales fell 2.2%, and pending sales actually increased 3.6%. But new listings are down 5% compared with the previous month.

Comparing January-August 2010 with the same period in 2009 the market looks to be improving. Closed sales are up 14.%, pending sales increased 4% and there are 6% more new listings.

There is about an 11 month supply of homes for sale if no new homes come on the market.

Now let’s look at average sale prices. The Average price actually increased 1% for August 2010 compared with August 2009. It increased 0.8% when compared with the previous month of July 2010.

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market;  4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.

The first time home buyer tax credit deadline has definitely skewed the numbers. Many people buying a home in Portland Oregon bought in April (instead of July) to take advantage of the tax credit. It will take a few more months for us to see if the market is worsening or just reacting to the artificial influence of the tax credit.

To compare with last month check my previous market conditions blog.

On to the July numbers for Portland real estate. Compared to the same month last year, closed home sales are down 29%. Also pending sales are down 24.9%. New listings (homes for sale in Portland) are up slightly–by 3.1%.

Compared to June 2010, July closed sales also fell by 29.8%. (Remember, the tax credit original rules were to close your first time home purchase by June 30, 2010.  Until the deadline was extended, July closed sales would not receive the tax credit. Lots of people purchased their home in June rather than July.)

Now let’s look at the sale prices of homes for sale in Portland real estate. The Average sales price for July 2010 increased 2.9% over the previous July. It increased 2.5% over June 2010.

The months of inventory for Portland real estate is currently at 10.3 months. (See the chart below.) This is firmly in the buyer’s market for homes for sale in Portland. So if you are looking at homes for sale in Portland Oregon, there are lots of homes to choose from.

What does all this mean? The numbers are confusing. Closed sales and pending sales for homes for sale in Portland are down. It’s a buyer’s market, yet prices are up slightly over last month and last year. It’s hard to explain except that we are still feeling the effects of the tax credit’s artificial influence on the Portland real estate market.

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market; 4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.

These are great questions. Determining answers is tricky. We’ll only know the bottom of the market when we see it in the rear view mirror. But there are definite signs of stabilization.

To compare with last month check my previous market conditions blog.

Homes are starting to sell faster and for slightly more money than they had been. This is good news. We see this in two sets of real estate statistics. Let’s look first at real estate home prices for sold homes with our latest market figures. June 2010’s average sales price was 3.3% lower than June 2009’s. But it’s up 2.4% over January 2010’s average sold price. In addition the total market time (a loose basis for how long homes take to sell) was 121 days in June, 145 days in January 2010 and 147 days in June of 2009.

The months of inventory (see chart below) is a measure of whether the real estate market favors buyers or sellers. While we’re still in a slight buyer’s market with 7.3 months of inventory last month, this is way better than January 2009’s 19.2 months of inventory.

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market; 4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.

If you remember, buyers needed to have their first home under contract by April 30, 2010. That’s a Pending Sale. The transaction needs to close by June 30, 2010. That’s a Sold statistic.

As expected, April saw a surge in pending sales and May has an increase in homes sold (43% more sold homes than May 2009). Look for June 2010 sold statistics to be higher also. But the market seems to not be sustaining this growth. Pending sales for May 2010 are down 24% compared with May 2009. And they’re down 50% from April 2010. People who would have bought in May had their offers accepted in April to qualify for the tax credit.

For May 2010 we have a seven month supply of homes for sale. (See the chart below.) That’s the lowest it’s been since October 2009. That is a good sign and brings us more in line with a neutral market–neither Buyer’s Market nor Seller’s Market.

The most optimistic news I pull out of the May 2010 numbers is that month to month price declines are slowing. If this continues, the housing market price tumble may be bottoming out.

May 2010 average sold price is down 5.5% from May 2009 but only down 2.3% from April 2010 average sold price. And the median sales price for May 2010 is down 4.4% from May 2009 but only down 0.4% from April 2010′s median sold price.

The next few months will help us see if the real estate prices are bottoming out.

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market;  4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.

April 2010 compared with April 2009

April 2010 had closed sales up 49.1% over April 2009. In addition, pending sales were up a huge 60.8%; new listings were up 23.8%. The average sales price went down 3.1% and the median sales price decreased 4%.

( We’ll have to see May 2010’s numbers to see how much of that increase was generated by the rush to qualify for the first time home buyer tax credit before 4/30/10.)

April 2010 compared with March 2010

In looking at April 2010 compared with the previous month, closed sales were up 7.9% and pending sales increased 24/5%. New listings were down 5.5%. the average sales price went up 0.6% over March figures; and the median sales price increased 0.5%.

Prices are still low. Interest rates haven’t crept up too much yet, although they are expected to rise over the coming months. If you qualify for a loan, this is an excellent time to buy.

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market;  4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market;  4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.

The February stats aren’t great. But the number of new listings, pending sales and closed sales are all better than in February 2009. So the market is moving in the right direction.

Is it a buyers market or a seller’s market? See the chart below.

It’s all based on the number of months of inventory. How many months would it take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new property came up for sale? Less than 4 months inventory is a sellers market;  4-6 months is a neutral market; and more than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. All information is courtesy of RMLS.

The good points:

Portland OR homes for sale inventory

• Prices in October still moved downward. This month’s figures show a lower average sold price (2.3% lower) than September’s figures. Yet the median price was up a bit over September. This may be signs of the market bottoming out.
• Most qualified buyers can obtain an interest rate under 5% today.
• First time home buyer tax credits have been extended to sales accepted before April 30,2010
• Owners of existing homes for 5 + years can also get a tax credit for buying a new home before April30, 2010

The reason to act soon:

• Interest rates may start going up again in the new year as the Fed cuts back its program to buy mortgages on the secondary market. This program has kept mortgage rates artificially low to stimulate the housing market.  Some analysts believe a reduction or cessation of this program could boost mortgage rates to the 5.5% to 6.5% range (compared to the 4.5% avg rate today).
• We can only tell where the bottom of the market is by looking over our shoulder. There is reason to believe home prices are leveling off.

Call me to learn the process to get you into that new home. 503.320.3163.

Back to the market information…

In the entire Portland Metro area:

The 12 month average appreciation rate is: -12.5%
This month’s Average Sales Price is: $283,000
This month’s Median Sales Price is: $245,000

The average days of market time is 135

Questions or comments about the market?

Email me Mailto:Anne@PortlandHomeSource.com

If you’re looking to buy in our “reduced price” home market, these next couple of months are perfect for three reasons.

1.  Those first time home buyers going for the $8000 tax credit are mostly in escrow by now so they can close by the Dec 1 deadline for the credit.

2.  We’re headed into the holidays when many buyers sit out the market until the beginning of the year.

3.  The average home price in Portland is down 10.6% from August 2008 and the median price is down 10.8% (And August 2008 average price was down 3.9% from August 2007)

All of this translates into the perfect buyer’s market. Are you ready to take the plunge?

Here are the housing numbers for August 2009. We have a cautiously improving housing market for the Portland metro area. The market continues to improve over 2008, but the August 2009 numbers are very slightly down from July 2009 statistics. Since we need to look at trends, rather than individual months, this doesn’t bother me.

For example, the average months of inventory (our indicator of a buyer’s or seller’s market) is 7.8 for August 2009. That is significantly down from last August (2008) but up only slightly from July 2009. See the chart at right to follow the trends. Closed sales and pending sales are both up from the previous August, but down slightly from July 2009.

In the entire Portland Metro area:

The 12 month average appreciation rate is: -10.6%
This month’s Average Sales Price is: $296,300
This month’s Median Sales Price is: $249,900

The average days of market time is 135

Questions or comments about the market?

Email me Mailto:Anne@PortlandHomeSource.com

We continue to see good news in the real estate market with the July ’09 stats that are just out. There were 8.6% more closed sales in July ’09 over July ’08 and pending sales were also up 8.3% over last July’s numbers. That means August’s numbers should also be showing improvement.

The number of months of inventory (see the box to the right) is how we measure a buyer’s market vs a seller’s market.  The very high amount of inventory we had been seeing is steadily moving downward each month. This is the 6th consecutive month where we see a reduced amount of months needed to sell all the homes on the market. Just for comparison,  in July ’08 there was 10 months of inventory for sale.

According to a formula from the National Association of Realtors, housing prices in the Portland area are in the affordable range for families earning the median income.

All of these numbers are moving in the correct direction for a recovery in our housing market.

In the entire Portland Metro area:

The 12 month average appreciation rate is: -11.9%
This month’s Average Sales Price is: $288,600
This month’s Median Sales Price is: $250,000

Questions or comments about the market?

Email me Mailto:Anne@PortlandHomeSource.com

¹ Inventory in Months is calculated by dividing the Active Listings at the end of the month in question by the number of closed sales for that month.

² % Change is based on a comparison of the rolling average sale price for the last 12 months with 12 months before.

All statistical information comes from RMLS^TM

There are signs of good news in the Portland area housing market. June 2009 pending sales were up 8.4% over June 2008. It’s the first time since December ’06 that pending sales were higher than the same month of the year before. Maybe the worst is behind us.

Comparing June 2009 with May 2009, closed sales were up 24.5%, pending sales were up 10% and new listings were also up 9.7%.

Inventory in Months–see box to the right–dropped for the 5th consecutive month.

All of these numbers are moving in the correct direction for a recovery in our housing market.

In the entire Portland Metro area:

The 12 month average appreciation rate is:   -9.7%
This month’s Average Sales Price is:   $299,800
This month’s  Median Sales Price is:    $249,900

Questions or comments about the market?

Email me Mailto:Anne@PortlandHomeSource.com

¹ Inventory in Months is calculated by dividing the Active Listings at the end of the month in question by the number of closed sales for that month.

² % Change is based on a comparison of the rolling average sale price for the last 12 months with 12 months before.

All statistical information comes from RMLS^TM